From NYBA Lobbyist Jim Hedrick - His thoughts on the November 8th 2022 general election results (Washington state):
"Democrats were not at risk of losing their majorities and as of this writing they will most likely expand their majorities in both the state Senate and state House.
The August primary was fresh off the Dobbs decision and Washington state progressive voters came out in force to vote for pro-choice candidates. In mid-October, The Seattle Times, King 5, the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, and Washington State University’s Murrow College of Communications polled Washington voters on the issues most important to them looking ahead to November. Among those polled, abortion remained a top issue for Democrats, whereas inflation was most concerning to Republicans and Independents.
It is too soon to know, but these issues may not have brought voters out in droves. Voter turnout is low for a midterm general election. Compared to election day in 2018, there are approximately 500,000 more registered voters in Washington State. However, at current count, there are 300,000 fewer ballots returned than four years ago on this day. Perhaps voters waited until the last minute - we won’t know for a few more days.
By far the most expensive legislative race this year is the contest in the 26th (Kitsap County) between incumbent Senator Emily Randall (D-26) and challenger Representative Jesse Young (R-26). At this time, Randall leads the race with 52.53%. This race attracted nearly $2.5 million in independent expenditures and more than $1.6 million in campaign contributions. This race has not been the case of mealy-mouthed politicians vying for the middle, as these two candidates could not be more different or from more opposite sides of the political continuum. While Young is a conservative, anti-abortion republican, Randall is a very progressive, pro-choice Latina member of the LGBTQ community. Randall won the seat in 2018 by only 102 votes. In the House race for Young’s seat, Adison Richards (D) leads Spencer Hutchins (R) with 51.1%. Representative Michelle Caldier (R-26) leads challenger Matt Macklin with 54.87%.
In the August primary where Republicans had an overall lackluster night, they performed decently in the 42nd (Whatcom County). At this time, challenger Representative Sharon Shewmake (D-42) leads with 51.31% over appointed incumbent Senator Simon Sefzik (R-42). Independent expenditures in this race totaled more than $1.6 million. This seat nearly went Democrat four years ago when the late Senator Doug Ericksen (R-42) won by only 46 votes over his challenger. In the House, Representative Alicia Rule (D-42) is hanging on with 52.13% over Tawsha Dykstra Thompson. In Shewmake’s open seat, Joe Timmons (D) leads Dan Johnson (R) with 51.84%.
The 10th district (Island County) race between incumbent Representative Greg Gilday (R-10) and challenger Clyde Shavers (D) had an October Surprise when Shavers’ father released a bombshell letter accusing Shavers of gross misrepresentations about his military service, career and family. Media investigations confirmed Shavers is not a practicing attorney and misrepresented his military service, leading the Everett Herald to rescind their endorsement of Shavers. At this time, Shavers is in the lead with 52.68%. In the other House seat, Representative Dave Paul (D-10) is leading with 54.29 over Karen Lesetmoe (R).
Prior to the August primary, legislative Republicans had high hopes for flipping the 47th (South King County) back to an R district, but those dreams were squashed when their frontrunner House candidate, Carmen Goers finished fifth, leaving retired Representative Pat Sullivan’s (D-47) seat to two Democrats. Republican hope remained for the Senate seat of retiring Senator Mona Das (D-47), where Kent Council Member Bill Boyce (R) and former Senator Claudia Kauffman (D) faced off in the general election. At this point, Kauffman leads Boyce with 53.46%.
In recent weeks, legislative Republicans have spent a lot of time and resources in the 5th (East King County), hoping to unseat Representative Lisa Callan (D-5). The challenger is none other than former Representative Chad Magendanz (R), who received the Seattle Times endorsement over the incumbent. Magendanz served in the House of Representatives from 2013-17 and was the ranking minority member on Education. In 2016, he attempted to unseat Senator Mark Mullet (D-5) and lost. At this time, Callan is leading with 54.77%.
In Seattle’s 37th, two Democrats, Chipalo Street (D) and Emijah Smith (D) faced off for retiring Representative Kirsten Harris-Talley’s (D-37) seat. Street is a principal program manager in Microsoft’s Chief Technology Officer’s office, while Smith is the Chief of Staff at King County Equity Now, a pro-Black advocacy organization. At this time, Street leads with 54.40%.
In North Seattle, two Democrats again sparred to take the seat of Representative Javier Valdez (D-46) who will be moving on to the Senate come January to take retiring Senator David Frockt’s (D-46) seat. At this time, Darya Farivar (D), the policy director at Disability Rights Washington is leading with 55.94% over pediatrician Dr. Lelach Rave.
Two Republican incumbents are currently losing to Republican challengers. In the 4th (Spokane County), Leonard Christian (R) is beating Representative Rob Chase (R-4) with 50.82. Christian served for two months in 2014 upon the resignation of Representative Larry Crouse. And in the 39th (Snohomish County), Sam Low (R) is besting embattled Representative Robert Sutherland (R-39) with 55.14%.
At this time, Southwest Washington is producing close races. In the 17th, for the seat of retiring Representative Vicki Kraft (R-17), Skamania Economic Development Manager Kevin Waters (R) is leading ICU Nurse Terri Niles (D) with 50.87%. In the 18th in the contest for retiring Representative Brandon Vick’s (R-18) seat, teacher John Zingale (D) is leading Stephanie McClintock (R) with 50.67%. In the other 18th seat, that of retiring Representative Larry Hoff (R-18), Greg Cheney (R) leads ICU nurse Duncan Camacho with 51.52%.
In the Secretary of State race between appointed incumbent moderate Democrat Steve Hobbs and nonpartisan candidate Julie Anderson, Hobbs leads with 50.03% over Anderson’s 46.87%. Hobbs is the first person of color to serve in this position. A seasoned campaigner, Hobbs is also the first democrat to serve as Secretary of State since the appointment of republican Bruce Chapman in 1975. Washingtonians have consistently voted for republicans for this statewide office, even when republicans held no other statewide office. If elected, Anderson would be both the first woman and the first nonpartisan official in that position.
If vote counts were final at this time, Democrats would retain commanding control over the Governor’s mansion, the Senate, and the House. I will continue to update as the picture becomes more clear this week."
Northwest